A winter without snow in either city is “not unheard of, but unusual.” Will it lead to drought? It’s too soon to tell.
Roxanne Egan- Elliott
Mar 15, 2026 4:30 AM
Both Victoria and Nanaimo have gone without any measurable snowfall this season, and that looks unlikely to change, with an atmospheric river expected to bring warm temperatures next week.
A winter without snow in either city is “not unheard of, but unusual,” said Terri Lang, a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada.
Victoria’s average annual snowfall over 30 years is about 20.9 centimetres — measured at the airport — while Nanaimo receives an average of 50.3 cm.
There’s still a chance of snow at higher elevations, but it’s unlikely in the cities as the air warms and the sun moves higher in the sky during March, Lang said.
Vancouver Island, in general, has had little snow this winter and is sitting at just 48 per cent of normal snowfall for this time of year, according to the province’s latest snow survey and water supply bulletin.
That’s up from 39 per cent on Feb. 1.
When snowpacks, which act as a natural water reservoir to help feed drinking-water supplies, wells and rivers, are below normal, that can raise concerns about spring and summer drought.
But Jonathan Boyd, a hydrologist with the River Forecast Centre, said it’s too early to sound the alarm, because much still depends on precipitation and temperatures through the spring.
A period of very hot weather in March and April that causes the snow to melt rapidly and early, for example, would be bad news, said Boyd, noting the timing and rate at which the snowpack melts is just as important as how much snow there is.
Environment and Climate Change Canada is predicting above-normal temperatures through May for most of the province, while southern Vancouver Island is forecast to receive less precipitation than normal.
The atmospheric river forecast to hit the coast midday today and drop more than 100 millimetres of rain on many parts of the Island could reduce the existing snowpack considerably, Boyd said. But it could also reduce the potential for drought.
“If it’s a warm rainfall event, it might melt a lot of the snow at that lower and mid-elevation that we just had, but the positive is that we add extra precipitation into the system. That will be better from a drought perspective,” he said.
Thirty to 60 millimetres of rain is forecast for Greater Victoria, while the Island’s west coast could see more than 300 mm.
A high streamflow advisory has been issued for the Island by the River Forecast Centre, with rivers expected to begin rising on Monday, and reaching peak levels early to mid-week.
Boyd noted that higher snowpacks don’t necessarily prevent drought conditions.
In 2023, when the snowpack measured much higher than it is now — 77 per cent of normal as of March 1 — the Island experienced significant drought.
That year, the province had the warmest May on record, leading to severe drought province-wide, Boyd said.
In 2024, the Island snowpack was similar to this year’s, and while there were some challenging drought conditions, rain during the summer helped, he said.
One reason the snowpack is so low this winter, despite normal amounts of precipitation, is that the winter has been warmer than usual, Boyd said.
Victoria’s Gonzales weather station recorded the fourth warmest winter on record in 150 years, while the airport saw the sixth warmest temperatures since 1915, and Comox was the fifth warmest since 1915.
Greater Victoria’s drinking water supply in Sooke Lake reservoir reached full capacity in mid-January, Boyd said. Other Island areas that have water storage are probably similarly in a good place, based on the amount of rain that fell this winter, he said.
“It’s just areas that might rely on storage of snowpack — it could be a bit more concerning,” he said.
Despite the Island’s low snowpack, B.C. Hydro is not anticipating problems meeting electricity demand, because recent precipitation and inflows have been above normal in many Island watersheds.
Most reservoirs are near or above seasonal levels, B.C. Hydro said, adding its system is interconnected province-wide, which reduces the impact of local low snowpack levels.
The provincial snowpack is only slightly below normal as of March 1, averaging 91 per cent, and it’s higher than last year at the same time, when it was 73 per cent of normal.
By March 1, about 80 per cent of the annual mountain snowpack has typically accumulated, the snowpack and water-supply bulletin says.
regan-elliott@timescolonist.com
