Nation of Change
Kanya D'Almeida
Inter Press Service/News Analysis
Published Saturday July 30th, 2011

Water Crisis Offers Chance for Unity over Strife

As record-break?ing tem?per?a?ture highs and rapidly melt?ing ice caps fuel fears about im?pend?ing "water wars", some ex?perts in Wash?ing?ton say that the threat of full-blown con?flict is ex?ag?ger?ated, adding that ro?bust in?sti?tu?tions and solid treaties could trans?form water crises into in?ter?na?tional co?op?er?a?tion.

The planet is cur?rently home to 276 in?ter?na?tional river basins, which cover al?most a half of the earth's land sur?face and are home to 40 per?cent of the global pop?u?la?tion.

Many of these basins cross bound?aries with no re?gard for the in?cen?di?ary pol?i?tics that di?vide na?tions, re?li?gions and peo?ples. In fact, a full 80 per?cent of the world's fresh water orig?i?nates in basins shared by two or more coun?tries.

How?ever, while the risk of water wars has long made head?lines, new re?search sug?gests that pos?si?ble co?op?er?a?tion over shared re?sources would be a bet?ter, and more ac?cu?rate, mes?sage.

"Those of us who work on is?sues of in?ter?na?tional water man?age?ment see only the bound?aries of wa?ter?sheds them?selves, we see the things that unite us, that bring us to?gether," Aaron Wolf, a pro?fes?sor of ge?og?ra?phy at the Uni?ver?sity of Ore?gon, told a panel at the Woodrow Wil?son In?ter?na?tional Cen?ter for Schol?ars in Wash?ing?ton on Thurs?day.

"We un?der?stand that every?thing – sur?face water, water quan?tity, water qual?ity, pop?u?la?tions that lives in the basin, the wildlife ? is all con?nected to?gether," said Wolf, adding that his?tory of?fers very few ex?am?ples of de?clared armed hos?til?i?ties over water it?self, the only un?am?bigu?ous case being a con?flict al?most 4,500 years ago.

Much more preva?lent, Wolf ar?gues, has been the sign?ing of treaties on the issue of shared basins.

The Trans?bound?ary Fresh?wa?ter Dis?pute Data?base (TFDD), a pro?ject of Ore?gon State Uni?ver?sity's De?part?ment of Geo?sciences in part?ner?ship with the North?west Al?liance for Com?pu?ta?tion Sci?ence, car?ried out ex?ten?sive re?search into the his?tory of wa?ter-re?lated con?flict, ref?er?enc?ing over 3,600 in?ter?na?tional treaties signed be?tween the years 805-1997.

Rat?ing wa?ter-re?lated events be?tween the years 1948-2008, the data?base found only 21 cases of "ex?ten?sive mil?i?tary acts" com?pared to 682 in?stances of "mild ver?bal sup?port" for treaties. The same pe?riod also wit?nessed the sign?ing of 145 treaties on shared water re?sources.

Jim Dun?can, a con?sul?tant to the World Bank and co-au?thor of the Bank's 2010 re?port "Map?ping the Re?silience of In?ter?na?tional River Basins to Fu?ture Cli?mate Change-In?duced Water Vari?abil?ity", be?lieves that, though cli?mate fluc?tu?a?tions are con?tribut?ing to in?creas?ingly tense re?la?tion?ships in the hy?dropo?lit?i?cal sphere, the pos?si?bil?ity of open hos?til?i?ties or con?flict is di?rectly pro?por?tional to the abil?ity of in?sti?tu?tions to mit?i?gate those changes.

In fact, Wolfe claims, "The like?li?hood of con?flict rises as the rate of change within the basin ex?ceeds the in?sti?tu?tional ca?pac?ity to ab?sorb that change," adding that in?sti?tu?tions need to form and flex their mus?cles in order to stave off water cat?a?stro?phes; un?co?or?di?nated de?vel?op?ment, or major pro?jects in the ab?sence of treaties, were much more likely to cause con?flict than creep?ing cli?mate change.

How?ever, not every?one shares this op?ti?mism about mit?i?gat?ing water wars.

Matt Zent?ner, a hy?drol?o?gist at the U.S. De?part?ment of De?fence, said in Wash?ing?ton Thurs?day that 1.4 bil?lion peo?ple cur?rently lack ac?cess to safe water, 2.4 bil?lion peo?ple live in sit?u?a?tions of grossly in?ad?e?quate san?i?ta?tion and 5.7 bil?lion peo?ple a year per?ish from wa?ter-borne dis?eases.

The World Bank re?ported ear?lier this year that 2.8 bil?lion peo?ple live in areas of high "water stress", a num?ber that is ex?pected to hit 3.9 bil?lion, half the world's pop?u?la?tion, by 2030.

Every minute, 15 chil?dren die from un?safe drink?ing water, the bulk of them in the de?vel?op?ing world. Mean?while, 2,400 litres of fresh water are re?quired to pro?duce every sin?gle ham?burger, which are con?sumed at the rate of 75 per sec?ond, ac?cord?ing to Mc?Don?ald's.

Put an?other way, the av?er?age per?son liv?ing in arid lands on the con?ti?nent of Africa uses 10-40 litres of water a day, com?pared to the 300-600 litres guz?zled by Eu?ro?pean or North Amer?i?cans liv?ing in urban cen?tres.

These dra?matic in?equal?i?ties in ac?cess, ex?perts argue, can?not be main?tained with?out con?flict.

Ref?er?enc?ing a 2010 Sen?ate re?port pre?sented to the U.S. Com?mit?tee on For?eign Re?la?tions in Feb?ru?ary, the founder of Green Growth Lead?ers Erik Ras?mussen stressed in an ar?ti?cle last month that "[The] grow?ing water scarcity is a pri?mary dri?ver for in?se?cu?rity, in?sta?bil?ity and con?flicts and is cur?rently set?ting the stage for fu?ture water wars – un?less global ac?tion is taken."

Lit?tle-known facts about the sup?ply of fresh water in the world today ap?pear to ver?ify Ras?mussen's fears.

Ac?cord?ing to the U.N. Ed?u?ca?tional, Sci?en?tific and Cul?tural Or?gan?i?sa?tion (UN?ESCO), only one per?cent of fresh water – less than 0.007 per?cent of all the water in the world – is eas?ily ac?ces?si?ble. Un?der?ground water ta?bles, or aquifers, take 1,400 years to be fully re?plen?ished. Given the mis?man?age?ment of water for agri?cul?tural pro?duc?tion ? ac?count?ing for 70 per?cent of all water with?drawals ? an im?pend?ing cri?sis looks all the more likely.

Back in 2009, Colin Chartres, the di?rec?tor gen?eral of the In?ter?na?tional Water Man?age?ment In?sti?tute (IWMI), said that a "noth?ing short of a blue rev?o?lu?tion" would be nec?es?sary to meet the water chal?lenges of the 21st cen?tury. Ac?tions thus far have not met this call.

"The cur?rent state of af?fairs de?mands that we act now," Ras?mussen said. "We need a new way of think?ing about water. We need to stop de?plet?ing our water re?sources, and urge water con?ser?va?tion on a global scale."

"We need to en?sure 'more crop per drop', Ras?mussen added. "While many de?vel?op?ing coun?tries use pre?cious water to grow one tonne of rice per hectare, other coun?tries pro?duce five tonnes per hectare under sim?i?lar so?cial and water con?di?tions, but with bet?ter tech?nol?ogy and man?age?ment."

"Thus, if we be?have in?tel?li?gently, and col?lab?o?rate be?tween neigh?bours, be?tween neigh?bour?ing coun?tries, be?tween North and South, and in the global trad?ing sys?tem, we shall not 'run out of water'. If we do not, and 'busi?ness as usual' pre?vails, then water wars will ac?cel?er?ate," he con?cluded.

http://www.nationofchange.org/water-crisis-offers-chance-unity-over-strife-1312084212