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Providing energy for the upgraders will also take a toll on water. Sherritt International and the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan are proposing to strip-mine a 312-square-kilometre area just east of Upgrader Alley for coal. A gasification plant would render the coal into synthetic gas and hydrogen to power the upgraders. Current estimates suggest that the project will likely need somewhere between two million and nine million cubic metres of water from the North Saskatchewan annually. Strip-mining farmland will also "affect groundwater aquifers and surface water hydrology," according to the Pembina Institute, an Alberta energy-sustainability think tank.

Last December, Alberta Environment released a new framework for the river that concluded "ample capacity exists in the North Saskatchewan River to support a healthy industry and growing population." The report okayed all current projects but noted that "the current level of proposed development calls out for a comprehensive review." The ministry also noted that "water quality could continue to decline without cumulative limits in place and actions to mitigate further impacts."

The fix to the shortfall championed by both industry and government involves using Edmonton's grey water. Instead of allowing a dozen upgraders to stick individual straws in the North Saskatchewan, the city's utility company, Epcor, would pipe the city's treated waste water to the upgraders. This would both lessen the load of chemicals on the river (treated waste water contains nitrogen and phosphorus) and provide a secure supply for the industry. "It's a good solution for the industrial heartland and the river," says Joe Gysel, vice-president of marketing and business development at Epcor.

But even if they use waste water—a common practice in water-short California and Colorado—the upgraders will be removing lots of water from the river. Given that no study on the river's water needs has yet been done, Schindler calls the framework's claims that there is lots of water in the river "pretty hollow." He also notes that the framework avoids any mention of declining river flows or the expected effects of climate change.

Historically, the North Saskatchewan River has been subject to extreme variations in flow, notes Dave Sauchyn, a climate change specialist at the University of Regina. In 1796, a drought year, the Hudson's Bay Co. had trouble moving furs, "there being no water in the river," as an eyewitness put it. Sauchyn says that 80 years of record keeping on the river are insufficient to predict variability in water availability. He adds that the lowest and one of the highest flows recorded on the river both took place between 2001 and 2005. Sauchyn, who has recently begun to study the impact of climate change on the river, already has a "gut reaction" to the idea of putting as many as 15 upgraders along its banks: "They should be thinking about whether it's judicious to proceed, or how to store water during low flows."

How can oil and water be diverted from their collision course in Alberta? No magic bullet has yet appeared, other than a dramatic slowdown in development. Indeed, in February, much of the industry itself—including Suncor, Petro-Canada, Husky Energy, Shell Canada and Imperial Oil—signed a letter calling on Alberta to impose a partial moratorium on oil sands development. While some industry players opposed the call, Environment Canada and aboriginal groups endorsed it. The letter addressed the need for the conservation of land rather than water per se, but the alert nonetheless signals the first groundswell recognition that the national project of the oil sands needs to pay more attention to the environment. The provincial government opposes a moratorium on the grounds that it will stymie innovation in the oil patch.

Some fixes for specific problems have been proposed. A number of companies are already working to conserve water. Suncor, the first enterprise in the sands, reduced water consumption by 30% between 2004 and 2006. One of its facilities uses no fresh water at all. "We are flipping the paradigm from the myth of water abundance to the reality of water scarcity," says Gord Lambert, Suncor's vice-president of sustainable development. "The status quo is not acceptable from an economic and environmental point of view."

Indeed, producers that have their water issues under control are likely to have an advantage over those that do not. An October, 2007, report on the oils sands by Scotia Capital warned that the industry probably has "another one to two years before this issue [water] comes to the forefront, at which point approvals will become more difficult to obtain, adding a premium to those companies whose projects are preapproved, or projects that use no water. "

To deal with the phenomenal growth of tailings waste, some companies have embraced a controversial burial system known as "end pit lakes." It entails piping the waste into excavated mine pits, covering the tailings with fresh water from the Athabasca River and then waiting hundreds of years for Mother Nature to find a solution. Mikula says there is very little evidence for the effectiveness of the scheme.

A better solution might be a sort of "brute force" centrifugal approach, says Mikula. It involves spinning the material to create something dry and stackable that could eventually be reclaimed—while recovering water at the same time. Both Syncrude and Suncor have begun pilot projects. "We could reduce water usage from four barrels to two [per barrel of oil] or maybe less, which means less water withdrawn from the Athabasca," says Mikula.

One solution to the upgrader concentration on the North Saskatchewan River might be to simply distribute the plants across Western Canada.

But such measures, even if coupled with efforts to conserve water across the industry, may not be sufficient. Even if the industry saves water, it is still drawing people to Alberta. David Schindler regards population growth driven by the oil boom in a drying climate as an intractable complication. He doubts the province's rivers can handle a projected 12 million people by the next century. He recommends keeping "human populations in the dry Prairie provinces relatively low, to avoid the water scarcity that has already become a major problem in the southwestern United States."

To John Thompson, the resource economist, the big issue now boils down to leadership: "We are water-short, and there are limits to growth. But who wants to be the politician who shatters the Alberta myth and says we are running out of stuff on the last frontier?"