Below are a few extracts from the British Columbia section of a new publication, From Impacts to Adaptations: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007 (from Natural Resources Canada).
It can be found at the following link. Interesting stuff on BC.

http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/bcb/index_e.php

http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/

British Columbia

2.6 ECOSYSTEMS

Climate change impacts ecosystem distribution and biodiversity (see Sections 3.2, 3.3, and 3.6). Several consistent
themes emerge from a wide range of studies:

• Pacific salmon, sardine, anchovy, mountain pine beetle and western red cedar have shown abrupt changes in abundance and/or distribution in response to past, relatively minor changes in climate (Robinson andWare, 1994; Hebda, 1999;Ware and Tomson, 2000; Brown and Hebda, 2002, 2003;Wright et al., 2005). Such changes can have significant
social and economic implications (see Sections 3.2 and 3.3).

• Large shifs in species ranges are expected to occur (Royal BC Museum, 2005a), oen with little overlap between current and projected distributions (Shafer et al., 2001).
Species will respond individually, and resulting vegetation communities may not resemble current communities (Brubaker, 1988; Gavin et al., 2001).

•any of BC’ specialized habitats (e.g. alpine ecosystems, deserts, cold steppe) will become reduced in extent and more fragmented (Shafer et al., 2001).

•The capacity of BC’ system of protected areas to maintain biodiversity will be challenged, as many species will be forced to migrate over natural barriers (water, mountains) and
human-induced landscape fragmentation (Overpeck et al.,1991; Dyer, 1995; Lemieux and Scott, 2005; see Section 3.6).

• Wildfire frequency and severity will increase in coming decades (Flannigan et al., 2001; Gillett et al., 2004; Gedalof et al., 2005;Westerling et al., 2006).While this will likely present challenges for some ecosystems, others (e.g. Garry oak and ponderosa pine forests), which are fire maintained, may expand in range (Agee, 1993; McKenzie et al. 2004).

• Large-scale outbreaks of pests, such as mountain pine beetle and spruce bark beetle, are expected to persist and expand with continued warming.These pose an increasing
threat to species such as high-elevation whitebark pine and eastern jack pine forests across western Canada (Logan and Powell, 2001; see Section 4.2).

2.7 SUMMARY
Key findings regarding ongoing and future climate changes in British Columbia include the following:

•Major shifts in climate variability and extremes are inherent to the system and can be expected in the future. Climate changes in BC during the twentieth century exceeded most global trends, with considerable regional variability.

•British Columbia’ climate is substantially influenced by large-scale variability patterns, including ENSO and the PDO. Associated extreme weather events are increasing, and resulting damage costs are on the rise.

•Increasing temperatures have resulted in decreased snow accumulation in many locations, particularly at low elevations.

•British Columbia’ glaciers are retreating at rates unprecedented in the last 8000 years, with implications for existing and future water and energy demands, agriculture and aquatic ecosystems.

•Vegetation reconstructions show that plant species respond individually to climate change. Future ecological changes will be complex and potentially rapid.

•British Columbia could warm by 2 to 7°C by 2080. Biophysical impacts will include sea-level rise, changing frequency and magnitude of precipitation and extreme events, major hydrological changes and reorganization of
ecosystems.

•Seasonal climate forecasts incorporating ENSO and PDO effects are useful for year-to-year operational planning, but are currently underutilized.

•Instrumental records used to compute climate normals, trends and probabilities of extreme event occurrence (floods, droughts, storms) are often too short, and assume
static (unchanging) conditions, and are therefore inadequate for many planning purposes.

3.1 WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

Water resources, and their management and use, are highly sensitive to climate variability and change.Water managers will
be challenged to meet multiple, often competing objectives (energy, irrigation, navigation, flood control, in-stream
requirements) under conditions of changing supply and demand.

SurfaceWater

British Columbia has immense water resources, with approximately one-third of Canada's surface water.The implications of climate change for management of surface water resources have received considerable attention in the Columbia River basin (cf. Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 1999; Mote et al., 1999; Miles et al., 2000), including consideration of transborder issues (Cohen et al., 2000; Hamlet, 2003; Payne et al., 2004). As discussed above (Section 2.4), climate-induced changes in hydrology, including reduced snow pack and earlier snowmelt
peaks, have significant implications for regional water supplies and fisheries. Increased flows during winter months and an
earlier flood season will result in less water flowing during the summer months, when irrigation demand is highest. Reduced
summer flows will also affect hydroelectricity generation and salmon habitat. It will be difficult to achieve current management
objectives for both hydroelectric generation and in-stream flows to support fisheries under virtually all future climate scenarios (Payne et al., 2004).Within the Fraser River basin, a longer lowflow period could elevate summer stream temperatures by almost 2°C, with serious implications for fisheries (Morrison et al., 2002; Loukas et al., 2004).
Hydrological scenarios for the Okanagan valley and implications for fisheries are discussed in detail in Section 4.3.

Although some research is available on hydrological impacts in the Liard River and Peace River basins of northeastern BC (see
Cohen, 1997), climate change has not been considered in current management plans. For example, although the Peace River Water
Use Plan includes reduction of greenhouse gas emissions as a management goal, it does not discuss management options for the hydrological changes that will be associated with climate change (BC Hydro, 2004).

Groundwater

Approximately 600 000 people (22% of British Columbia’s population) rely on groundwater as a source of drinking water
(BC Ministry of Environment, Land and Parks, 1993).

Agriculture and industry, including irrigation, pulp and paper,fish hatcheries, food processing, mining, chemical and
petrochemical industries, parks and airports, are all major users of groundwater in the province (Liebscher, 1987).
To date, more than 600 aquifers have been mapped and classified according to the BC Aquifer Classification System8.

In addition to the direct impact of climate change on groundwater tables and quality (see Section 2.4), increased demand for groundwater is anticipated in areas of the province where surface-water systems are unable to meet consumptive and in-stream demands. In some areas, such demands may
necessitate deepening water supply wells to access deeper aquifers that are less sensitive to changing climate (Rivera et al.,2004).